Who Would Take the Spot of the Leader?: The Competition Response to the Largest Drug-Trafficking Actor Dissolving
Published:
The war against drugs started 50 years ago with limited results in the disruption of the illegal drug supply. Many authors have attributed this failure to the “balloon effect”.We use a historic event in Colombia to estimate how the departure of the main producer of coca affects the drug trafficking business. Starting in 2003, the government of Colombia engaged in a peace process that ended with the demobilization of the country’s biggest drug traffic actor, which we exploit in a study event approach. In areas where the armed group was initially present, the land dedicated to producing coca decreased by 30%. However, as the “balloon effect” predicts the production increased 3 years later. We found no evidence of a reduction in violence, but we found a responsive action from the national government, where military activities follow the trend of coca production. We also found that the other two actors in the narcotraffic business did not engage in military actions to dominate the leftover territory, but they increased the operations to appropriate the routes of narcotraffic on the shores, increasing the violence in municipalities close to these places. Our results suggest that the departure of the main producer does not guarantee a reduction of illegal production and it can create unintended consequences such as violent increments for the appropriation of the narcotraffic routes.